Monday, August 10th, 2009
I had the chance to speak with Jane Powers yesterday. She doesn’t really know more than you or I, but she’s been there, done that.
“Look out for governments when they start throwing around statistics,” she said.
I guess you mean politicians?
“No, I mean governments. In case you haven’t figured it our yet, a clever bureaucrat with an agenda can pretty much make the numbers come out to make his case. Politicians also use the same tactic, mostly to distract you from other issues where the numbers are less favorable to their cause.”
Like unemployment figures?
Sure, but I was thinking about Social Security, Medicare, and other so-called entitlements. These government expenditures cannot be maintained forever by borrowing. You know that (unless you’re Rip Van Winkle), I know that, and every one in the White House and Congress knows that. But do you ever hear anyone giving us the real and complete statistics?”
So that’s where you came up with “Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics”?
“Not really. That was what the professor that taught me statistics in B School called his course. It got a lot of attention.”
What should government do then . . . about entitlements?
“No one is prepared to agree upon a definition of ‘entitlements‘ ”. This is the issue Obama and both sides of the aisles in Congress and in the 50 Statehouses are fighting over, but they mask the debate in various disguises and a lot of doctored statistics (no pun intended). Instead of making this an ideological war from which no one will emerge a winner, certainly not the United States of America, why don’t we ditch the lies, damn lies, and statistics and go to the heart of the problem?”
And what do you think that is?
“To what in fact are all of us entitled to receive from our neighbors? Sure, some of us have better means to pay for what we think we need without taking handouts, either because we received it for value and hard work, inherited it, stole it, or were just plain lucky to be born in the right place at the right time with the right talent; but so what? Does the fact that you were lucky give others less fortunate the right to insist that you cough up some of your results? If not, where does the government get off doing it for them? If we agree it needs to be done, wouldn’t it be better to give the lucky ones an incentive to voluntarily help the less fortunate?”
It seems we passed that milestone some time ago, except for giving charitable tax deductions.
“Sure, but no one bothered to tell us about it at the time. Look, none of us know the right answer to what we all should be entitled, but it begs the real question.
Which is?
“What kind of society do we wish to live in and try to maintain. We have to start somewhere being honest, and when we have a starting point, then we can whittle away with full disclosure to achieve a balance that an overwhelming majority of us accept, endorse, and are willing to pay for.”
Isn’t that exactly what we’ve done . . .except the paying for part?
“No it’s not. Tell me if you can where all this business of entitlements started?”
I guess during the Great Depression.
And WWII interrupted it? Look, if this country were one of the more homogeneous European kingdoms from which our forbears escaped, our starting point might embrace a closer social compact ending in a productive society like, say, Sweden was 60 years ago, when it had the highest standard of living in the world. But Sweden then took entitlements to extremes and today is a broken model and not homogeneous enough to go back and fix it. How would they undo it even if they could?”
So you’re saying we should start at some point where we all could agree what was there at that time, and from there make the changes we want to make for today.
“Why not? If we go back 60 years in this country to the start of the postwar expansion we would see a far different picture than Sweden. We were still basically a white euro-extracted society, but with a severe and growing problem of social inequality not present then in most Western societies. We can’t go back and do things better or differently any more than Sweden can. The very freedom to act, and to sink or swim as individuals, that America offered over the intervening period was both our blessing and our curse. Not all that were here had the same opportunity, but we can’t change that either. You can’t change what we did and didn’t do by trying to make up for it. We can, however, make sure the playing field is more even in the future. But let’s face it, if we have to pay for what we gave away in the past the only ones that can do it are those with most of the money.”
But what entitlements are attempts to make up for past inequalities?
“All of them, and some are legitimately so, but others are more like saving our national conscience.”
Which are legitimate in your opinion?
“Well, first of all, only those the taxpayers are prepare to pay for – now as they’re incurred – not later when their children are paying.”
Okay, so we pay now – which ones do you see as legitimate?
“It’s not what I see. It’s what the nation sees . . . after an honest, frank, discussion and vote. And by honest I mean no lies or damn lies.”
And no statistics?
“None that aren’t fully supported by honest assumptions. Change the assumptions and the figures change. That’s what we learned in that statistics course.”
How do you implement the new structure once it’s agreed?
“Ah Ha, the devil’s in the details. Our leadership, especially in Congress, did not grow with the rest of the country. The place where this failure is most obvious (but it’s everywhere) is in Chicago and California. The old guard political machine in Chicago is as it has been for decades – feed the poor for their vote, take a little piece of everybody to keep the politicians in clover, and encourage business by maintaining very, very strict law and order for third parties. And California is now where the whole country will be in a few years if we don’t solve the entitlement problem. They’ve kept paying and borrowing, and now it’s over.
So where do we start?
Health care is the most complex of the so-called entitlements. But make no mistake we have the best health care in the world in this country. No one goes unattended here the way it happens everyday in Sweden, the UK, and Canada. I know. I’ve been there, done that. Our hospitals in the U.S., both private and public, take in all who need help, but those who have insurance or are educators, subsidize the cost for those that don’t. But isn’t this better than having the government subsidizing and bureaucrats rationing the way they do in those three countries . . . at least until we can figure out how to do it cheaper?”
What needs fixing then?
The real problem again is not the uninsured as the government statistics would have you believe – it’s the nationalized healthcare system for the over 65’s called Medicare. To say it’s abused at every level would be an understatement. Whatever we’re entitled to, it certainly is not to commit fraud, but that’s what suppliers, patients at all levels and many doctors do under the Medicare Rules (run by the government by the way). Stamp out the fraud and you probably solve the excessive cost problem. But more importantly, where is it written that I have the right to a doctor or a hospital bed? I only insist that I have what others have. We might decide to make such available, but if so, we need to make sure it’s paid for. This is where all the lies and statistics come in. Agreeing on the truth would be a great place to begin.”
How about Social Security?
“The easy answer is because it’s there, and has been for long enough that people have figured it into their lifestyle. Most persons below the age of 50 that I know do not seriously expect Social Security to be around when they are their parents’ age. So why keep it? The answer goes back to the big lie. Most people thought the money they paid into Social Security belonged to them, in principle if not in fact. But Congress used it for other things like paying their own salary and goodies and they’ve never been willing to own up. That’s why Congress would not agree with the Bush Administration to let individual payors decide where the money would go – they need to keep control over it to pay for other handouts.”
So, what happens if Congress scraps Social Security?
“Good question. They’d get voted out in the next election. That’s why they won’t do it, except with lies and statistics. Recipients would not be able to afford their home, food, car, boat, etc., and this will have an awful affect on the economy. For these reasons Congress will do nothing, except slowly and quietly double tax it into oblivion without telling you that’s what the plan is.”
That’s pretty cynical.
“Yes it is. I’m very cynical when it comes to Congress ever standing up for the truth. You can see it now with their blaming everyone but themselves for the uproar over the proposed health plan. Wait until the other so-called entitlements come up for discussion. Could it be that the American people are smarter than Congress thinks they are. Is it possible that elected representatives, including the President, are too wrapped up in their own past and the next election to clearly see the issues confronting the nation? Are they fooled by their own lies and statistics?”
That’s a lot to think about, Jane, but I gotta go. I’m meeting Joanie at her doctors. She’s getting a breast implant to go along with the tummy tuck.