Jay Lillie

Our government’s embargo against Americans doing business in Cuba made the “Special Report Panel” with Bret Baier, Fox News, on Friday April 17^th. I’ve been waiting for several years for this to happen, and wouldn’t you know I missed it. The transcript is available on the Fox News Website, and it’s with this text that I’m working. 

Charles Krauthammer, the well-known contributor to the Fox News Channel came closest to reality when he raised Eastern Europe as a precedent for how you get rid of communist dictators like Fidel and Raul Castro. He spoke in terms of the Helsinki accord, but if you look behind that you’ll find the freedom offered by Western business was the true catalyst for bringing down the Soviet Empire and opening up Eastern Europe. Good-on-ya, Charles. 

Fred Barnes, also on the Panel, actually said that China and Hugo Chavez are not going to be big factors in Cuba . . . no matter what. Fred’s been in Washington too long. What he might have been referring to is Fidel Castro’s systemic aversion to any outside force having too much influence in his Cuba, but to suggest that China has no designs or is incapable of carrying them out when the time is right, ignores what’s happened in Panama. Get with it, Fred. 

Nina Easton made two contributions that were interesting. She said, only partly in jest I trust, that we should make Cuba the destination for college kids on Spring Break, and that would have a more damaging effect than the embargo has for 50 years. I liked that. 

The other good point Easton made was noting the real reason for keeping American business out of Cuba until the Castros are gone . . . that Cuban American votes would be placed at risk in Florida. I’m not sure that’s the case any longer. 

They all came up short of considering what seems obvious. If we were to simply . . . without fanfare and absolutely not in conversation with anyone in the Castro regime . . . repeal the Helms/Burton Act and the Cuban Democracy Act, as being unconstitutional limitations on American citizens doing business abroad, or if President Obama would sign an executive order stating the same and that he will therefore not enforce these laws against United States citizens, what do we think might happen? 

First: The rest of the world, including the people of Cuba in and out of the Castro hierarchy, would realize we had simply opened up Cuba to international business. The Cuban regime would then have to act to keep the rest of the world out. This will, I guarantee you, cause unrest in Cuba, not only among ordinary people but also among those in the Cuban hierarchy that want very much to do business with us. How do I know that? I’ve talked with them. 

Second: To enter any manner of discussions with the Castro Brothers gives them the stature and credibility they want, and sends the message to their people that we will do nothing that the regime doesn’t approve. That’s power, and that’s a step in the wrong direction. 

Third: There are many ways of opening up Cuba on democratic terms once American citizens are free to operate down there without being fined or arrested by our own government for doing so. 

Is this really so difficult to understand?

When the Chinese President, Hu Jintao, visited Cuba last Tuesday on his way to the Apec Summit meeting in Lima, Peru, the Cuban Communist Party news agency pointed out that while China has now joined the rest of the world by embracing free market reforms, it criticized (and I quote the Associated Press) “the evils of such an accelerated spiral: unequal distribution of the country’s income, a marked difference between city and country, and the erosion of the environment.” The Castro regime doesn’t want China’s success to breed discontent in Havana. Accelerated market reform would bring them down, pretty quick I imagine. Up to now they haven’t needed to worry about this happening . . . our embargo against Americans doing business in Cuba has removed this threat for them. 

It’s late, but not too late, for Congress and the White House to turn their attention to what’s going on, but it will becomes less of an opportunity for Washington to make an effective, strategic, move with relevant impact as Russia and China continue to deepen their commitment to Cuba and Venezuela. Action by Congress and the President within the next few months, freeing us to go to Cuba and conduct business, would send the very positive message to the rest of the world that the game is on and the USA is back as a player. 

This will wake us all up, and pave the way for the U.S. to make the competition for the hearts and minds of the Cuban people a four-way battle. Until recently, the contest would have been between the Castro regime and us. Now Venezuela, China and Russia are in the mix. We still have the advantage, because the people of Cuba know they’d be much better off with U.S. business as their partner. If you don’t believe that, lets’ sneak into Cuba and ask them. 

The Cuban embargo has helped keep the Castro’s in power by depriving the people of Cuba of an alternative to communism. Ceding Cuba to our communist protagonists, as we’ve done for the past 25 years, makes us the world’s laughing stock, with adverse consequences far beyond Cuba and the Caribbean. 

There’s something more going on here, which is longer range but every bit as significant. As we allow China and Russia to become more closely aligned and entwined with the Castro and Hugo Chavez regimes, the strategic military prize in the game becomes the naval base at Guantanamo Bay, which from it’s perch on the southeast coast of Cuba commands a view over the entire Caribbean. They’d like to see Guantanamo Bay back in friendly Cuban hands so they can use it, and they might have the means to accomplish that without our firing a shot. I can show you how that might work, but doing so would give away the storyline of my fourth novel, which at this point is a work-in-progress. I’m waiting to see how our new Congress will play into the plot. 

Sounds farfetched doesn’t it, but 30 years ago who would have thought the Chinese would be present today in Panama, operating and maintaining the Panama Canal. We gave the Canal back to Panama to save our good guy image to the world; what makes us think we won’t do the same with our Guantanamo Bay naval base? 

The story of Havana Passage, published in 2005, takes place in 2009 with a new American President in office. The plot is based upon the real facts of the embargo and our misguided foreign policy, along with the intrigue it has spawned in Havana, Caracas, Moscow, and Beijing. If we don’t change our ways soon, my fourth novel, covering the coming conflict with China, Russia, Cuba and Venezuela over our lease for the naval base at Guantanamo Bay, will become as timely four or five years from now as Havana Passage is today. 

Mark Twain had it right: The difference between truth and fiction is that fiction needs to be credible.

The Russians are coming.

November, 2008

Two oil rich nations, Russia and Venezuela, are conducting war games on and under the Caribbean Sea next week. The new Russian President, Medvedev, will be coming to watch. I wonder what role our friends Hugo Chavez and the Castro brothers will play in these games. Or will the Russians act out the part of a United States force invading Venezuela and Cuba, as Hugo Chavez keeps saying is what we have up our sleeve? You might recall in my novel, Havana Passage, Venezuela moves with force to rescue the Castro regime when the Cuban people rise up to overthrow them.

Back in Part I of this series a couple of weeks ago we sliced the Caribbean two ways. One was the military slice, connecting the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base at the northern extreme with the Panama Canal in the south. If you were to sit up on the hill near the entrance to our naval base on the southeast coast of Cuba with a strong telescope or long range radar, you should have a ringside seat for the coming Russian war games. Maybe a Russian sub will try to penetrate the Bay at Guantanamo. If you feel the earth trembling, it’s probably President James Monroe rolling over in his grave.

The U.S. State Department is feigning a big yawn at this joint exercise. This is not a bad idea since the truth is the Russian move has much to do with reacting to China’s expanding role in the Caribbean and elsewhere in Latin America, and the moves the U.S.A. is making with the NATO missile defense system that Russia sees as a threat back home. It’s no accident that this Russian gambit is taking place now, after the election, during the period when any new President is most impressionable. I would venture a guess that the Pentagon looks at this as an opportunity to peek in and assess.

Meanwhile, if we look at the south side of the other slice of the Caribbean Sea, from the Yucatan in the northwest to Venezuela in the southeast, we see not a war game, but an economic reality. Both China and Russia are making deals for natural resources in places like Bolivia. This will certainly bolster the economies of these countries, which is good if it helps the people and doesn’t end up in the pockets of their populist leaders. In any case these ventures greatly expand the influence of our worldly competitors, Russia and China, in our own back yard. Herein lies the challenge for our new President and his entourage.

Besides getting Congress to pass the Columbian and Peruvian trade deals, which they’ve been sitting on for two years to placate the union bosses, how do we compete successfully with China and Russia for the natural resources in South America? At the same time the U.S. needs to foresee the confrontation that’s coming along the Guantanamo Bay -Panama Canal axis, of which these Russian games are Phase One.

We have a few original ideas to both these points, which we’ll explore in the coming weeks leading up to the inauguration of the new President and convening of the new Congress. The economy is not the Country’s only priority.

Part II – The New President’s Caribbean

Including an open letter to President Elect Obama

There are expectations coming from various sources, such as President “Lula” of Brazil, that our new President will work with the new Congress to lift the embargo on U.S. persons and others doing business in Cuba. This is thirty years overdue, and it should be done now . . . not because we wish to help the Castros in any way . . . but because it will be the first step in bringing down their communist totalitarian regime.

If this had been done after the Russians packed up and went home, both Castros would be history. Since it was Fidel who convinced the Venezuelan Army to reinstate Chavez after the coup seven years ago, Hugo Chavez wouldn’t be around either.

 Communism cannot stand in a society of achievers given the opportunity to choose what they want to do. This is the force that brought down the Berlin Wall and guided Eastern Europe into the freedom to make choices. In time, the same effect will become more visible in China. No economy can succeed unless business people have some freedom to choose and exercise their passion.

Castros’ downfall will not happen overnight, but once the Cuban people have the chance to work alongside experienced business entrepreneurs, to learn and see what it takes to be a success, there will be no stopping them. The Castro regime may try to keep business choices out of the hands of its people, just as Russia did in Eastern Europe; but the result will be the same, and the Castros’ Wall will come down. But first we need to take down the wall that we built. It’s time we stopped doing the Castros’ work for them.

The hardest part of the President’s task may be convincing the U.S. Congress to rescind the Helms Burton Act and the so-called Cuban Democracy Act, an application of the Trading With the Enemy Act to Americans working with Cubans. The hard liners in Congress, who represent Cuban/American interests with their own agendas, will argue that removing the embargo will give the communists what they need to stay in control and get even stronger. This didn’t happen in Eastern Europe, and it won’t be the result in Cuba. The problem is it takes foresight and a sense of history to see this . . . not two of our Congress’s stronger points.

Here’s my open letter:

Dear President Obama,

You were Editor in Chief of the Harvard Law Review. You know very well that the laws implementing the Cuban embargo are unconstitutional as applied to our own citizens. What circumstance justifies our being told by our own government that we can’t go abroad to do business? Congress has never made the case for such an extraordinary action in the instance of Cuba. Congress tried to get around this Constitutional issue by couching the embargo law in terms of not spending any money while you’re there. In other words, “You can go there, America, but you can’t spend a penny while you’re there”. You also know that this cute artifice to get around the Constitutional safeguard cannot save the law, because the prohibiting affect is the same.

Outside of South Florida and portions of New Jersey, few of us understand the purpose of these laws or the consequence of leaving them on the books. When and if the rest of us do understand what’s at stake, we’ll unconditionally support lifting the embargo.

If you really want to change things for the better, here’s not a bad place to start.

Respectfully submitted,

Jay Lillie

Those familiar with the charge against Congress for maintaining an embargo against Americans doing business in Cuba might think I’m pleased to see the Obama Administration considering easing the travel restrictions to Cuba for people with family there. 

Yes and no. It would be nice for the Cuban families to be able to see each other on a more spontaneous basis, and for Cubans here to send money to relatives in Havana (so long as the Castros let them keep it), but none of this is going to get rid of the Castro Regime any time soon. Nor is it a meaningful step in that direction. 

What needs to be done is for Congress to unilaterally repeal the Cuban Democracy Act and the unconstitutional Helms Burton Act, and do it now. If they’ll do this, the rest of the world, including American business, will set in motion the necessary sequence of events to rid us once and for all of the Castro brothers and those that would follow blindly in their footsteps. Of course our Congress, and that includes the Black Caucus who were in Havana last week, always think they can do it better. 

This is a litmus test for Barack. He knows, as the brilliant law student he once was, that Helms Burton and the Cuban Democracy Act as applied to Americans in all walks of life are unconstitutional incursions upon our liberty and freedom to go where we wish and trade with whom we want. If Barack can get Congress to repeal these laws, the Cuban people will welcome this long overdue happening and Fidel’s followers will have a tough time keeping on the lid. 

Try to do this through making apologies as the Black Caucus sadly demonstrated, or by reaching any predetermined arrangement with Raul or Fidel, and it changes nothing. The Cuban people will witness one more time Fidel manipulating Washington to keep his legacy intact, and it will entrench his regime just as the Helms Burton law has since 1995. 

Repeal of the Helms Burton and the Cuban Democracy Acts is not being kind to Fidel Castro as those who want it kept in place will try to tell you. On the contrary, if it’s done unilaterally without conditions or fanfare or any voice of Fidel’s or Raul’s in the process, the effect will open the minds of the Cuban people to what is immediately possible. Washington can then afford to sit quietly on the sidelines while the Castro’s try to explain to their people why they won’t let the rest of the world in.

By the way . . . the Black Caucus violated the Helms Burton Act by going to Cuba and jawboning with the Castros.

You can try to fool all the people all the time, but our President proved last week that you probably won’t succeed. I don’t know who’s been advising him during his trip abroad, but whoever it is clearly thinks the same campaign rhetoric and style that got him chosen last November would do the trick in London and on the Continent. 

I happened to be in London on business, and my own impressions, for what they’re worth, are first hand and not from media excerpts and replays. The Londoners I know felt sorry for me, and believe me that’s a first. I’ve been blamed, criticized, and told that we’re all cowboys, but never, in decades of travelling to Great Britain and the Continent of Europe on business and for pleasure, have Londoners ever expressed feeling sorry for me. Previous American Presidents made them feel sorry for themselves and not happy with me. President Obama left them just embarrassed for me. 

It was like someone on the President’s staff was determined to rewrite the “Ugly American”, a book published during Dwight Eisenhower’s time in the White House. It was about boorish, ill-mannered Americans travelling in Europe for the first time after WWII, acting as if they owned the place, and making the rest of us look foolish. So they had the President republish this theme . . . trying to endear himself to Europe by making too many years of American history look bad. I wonder what they’ll have him say when he goes to Japan and China. 

Most of the Brits I know thought this was a cheap trick. Some of them even said as much. London was expecting another John F. Kennedy and got a high-strung Jimmy Carter instead. It was a leadership moment wasted, disappointing, and now worrisome. 

The European television cameras often showed the President’s teleprompters in the picture. That never happened during his campaign here, and it tarnished the onscreen image of his credibility. In fact, it all sounded exactly like he was back on the campaign stump, but if he was doing it on behalf of his country, rather than himself, then he failed. 

The campaign is over, Mr. President. Get another speechwriter.